PRLog (Press Release) – Apr 25, 2011 – BMI forecasts that by 2015 Romania will account for 2.24% of Central Eastern Europe (CEE) regional power generation, and will remain a modest net exporter of electricity to neighbouring states. CEE power generation in 2010 will have been an estimated 2,581 terawatt hours (TWh), representing a recovery of 2.3% from the helicop ter technology previous year. We forecast an increase in regional generation to 3,023TWh by 2015, representing a rise of 13.6% during 2011-2015.
CEE thermal power generation in 2010 will have been around 1,282TWh, accounting for 49.7% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2015 is 1,447TWh, implying 10.0% growth that reduces the market share of thermal generation to 47.9% - thanks to environmental concerns promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. In 2010, Romania's thermal generation is expected to have been 30.2TWh, or 2.36% of the regional total. By 2015, the country is expected to account for 2.33% of regional thermal generation.
Gas is the dominant fuel source in Romania, accounting for an estimated 35.7% of 2010 primary energy demand (PED). Gas is followed by oil at 29.0%, coal at 18.1%, hydro at 10.3% and nuclear with a 6.3% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 1,519mn toe by 2015, representing 13.15% growth over the period 2011-2015. Romania's estimated 2010 market share of 2.64% is set to rise to 2.70% by 2015. In 2010, Romania will have accounted for an estimated 2.71% of regional nuclear energy consumption, with a forecast market share of 2.58% by 2015.
Romania holds fifth place in BMI's updated Power Business Environment Ratings, this quarter jut two points behind Poland and three ahead of Hungary. The score reflects a relatively low level of import dependence, a high proportion of renewable energy, growing PED and an established competitive landscape. Over the medium term, Romania is likely to be left further behind by Poland, Turkey and Russia, while Hungary, which is ranked below poses little threat.
BMI expects Romanian real GDP growth to average 3.98% a year between 2011 and 2015, with an assumed 2011 increase of 2.10%. The country's population is set to contract from 21.4mn in 2010, to 21.0mn in 2015, and GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita are forecast to rise 45% and 20% respectively. The country's electricity consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 38.7TWh in 2010 to 46.5TWh by the end of the forecast period. After power industry usage and system losses, we see an estimated net surplus of up to 4.3TWh in 2015, assuming 3.9% average annual growth in generation during the period 2011-2015.
Between 2011 and 2020, we are forecasting an increase in Romanian electricity generation of 38.3%, which is towards the upper end of the projected range for the CEE region. This equates to 18 manual trash compactor .8% in the 2015-2020 period, up from 16.4% in 2011-2015. PED growth is set to increase from 16.1% in 2011-2015 to 18.4% in 2015-2020, representing 37.4% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 35% in hydropower use during 2011-2020 will be a key element of generation growth, with nuclear use set to rise by 60%. Thermal power generation is forecast to increase by 62% between 2011 and 2020. More detail of BMI's long-term forecasts can be found later in the report.
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